A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

The S&P 500 snapped a nine-week winning streak this week — the run off the March 30th lows finally breaking — falling roughly 2.6% over the five sessions, with nearly all the damage concentrated in a brutal Friday that saw the SPX shed 2.64% and the Nasdaq crater 4.18%, its worst day since April 2025. The selloff had two engines: a much-hotter-than-expected jobs report that slammed the door on near-term Fed cuts, and a stumble at a key node of the AI ecosystem. On the semi trade, valuations were stretched to begin with, and Broadcom's failure to raise its AI guidance was enough to put the AI trade on pause. Read that again — on pause, not over.

On the macro front, the week opened with oil grinding higher as the U.S. and Iran traded jabs without concrete progress toward a ceasefire; WTI briefly topped $96 Wednesday, and bonds sold off in sympathy, pushing the 10-year yield to a Friday high near 4.54%. Then came the labor data. ADP and JOLTS set the table, but Friday's nonfarm payrolls print was the headline — 172,000 jobs against a consensus near 80,000, with the unemployment rate holding firm at 4.3%. Why does it matter? Because several legs propping up this rally lean on the prospect of Fed easing, massive AI capex, and hopes for geopolitical de-escalation. This week, two of those legs wobbled: the print didn't just kill the case for cuts — it flipped the script entirely, with CME FedWatch now showing a 70% chance the Fed hikes by year-end. With the 10-year back in the mid-4s and the market pricing a Fed more likely to raise than cut, the tape took its tumble.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

The McClellan Oscillator closed Friday at -64.67, down sharply from -6.47 the prior week — a deterioration that deserves your attention. The oscillator has been below zero since May 11, meaning the Summation Index has been quietly falling for nearly a month. That matters because it has been happening while the S&P sat near all-time highs — the kind of under-the-hood divergence that doesn't announce itself loudly, but tends to show up in your P&L before it shows up on the front page.

The rest of the internals reinforce the caution. Decliners outpaced advancers on the NYSE by more than 2-to-1 on Friday — 1,938 declining issues against just 825 advancing. New 52-week highs remain thin at a 3.7% 10-day average, well below what you'd expect from a healthy, broad-based rally. The put/call ratio at 0.67 signals call buyers are dominant — complacency, not conviction. The headline index is holding. The depth gauge says something different.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

Now to what I'm watching most carefully — aside from the surf report and the tides. The SPX closed the week at 7,383.74, down roughly 2.6% from where it started, but the number that matters more is the slide off Tuesday's record intraday high near 7,620: a drop of about 3.1% peak-to-close in just three sessions. The brunt of it came Friday, when the index shed 2.64% from Thursday's 7,584 close — its worst single day since October.

The setup into that high was stretched. At the peak, the SPX was technically overbought, with daily RSI pushing ~74 (see chart). But the three-day slide did real work on momentum — by Friday's close, RSI had cooled all the way to 48.77, right back to neutral. Step back and the context is clear: from the March 30th intraday low of 6,316, the index ran about 20.6% to Tuesday's top — a powerful, extended move that left price begging for a pullback.

From here, first support is a tight confluence zone: the 50-day moving average at ~7,156 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire March-to-June advance at ~7,121. Two independent levels stacked within roughly 35 points of each other — about 3.1% to 3.6% below Friday's close — is exactly the kind of support shelf that tends to hold the first test. That band is what I'm watching. With RSI already back at neutral (48.77), a tag of that zone could push momentum toward oversold, and that's where I'd look for consolidation to set in and — for those underweight — an opportunity to add to the mega-cap tech leaders that have carried this rally. The trend off the March low is still up; this reads like a pause to digest, not a top.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

The sentiment picture flipped from the complacency you'd expect near the highs. Retail isn't euphoric — it's nervous. AAII bulls slipped to 36.3%, below the long-run average for a third straight week, while bears climbed to 36.6%, running hot above their historical norm for the fourteenth consecutive week. That's not the profile of a frothy top; it's a market climbing a wall of worry. CNN's Fear & Greed Index has dropped into Fear at 42, down from the spring's greed readings, cooled in part by the volatility around the Iran conflict. Active managers tell a similar story: NAAIM exposure sits at 86.8, still firmly long but trimmed back from the near-fully-invested 98 reading in late May. Large speculators remain net long S&P futures. The throughline: positioning is still constructive, but the easy optimism has drained out — and a nervous market that keeps grinding higher is often more durable than a euphoric one.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

After charting the conditions, gauging the depth, and reading the price action, it's time to set the heading. This week the internals and the tape told the same story — a market that ran too far, too fast, and now needs to digest. My near-term bias is to the bear side, but make no mistake: this reads as a course correction within a larger uptrend, not a change in direction. Here's how I'm positioning into the week ahead.

On the Radar & Game Plan

On the Radar — Bearish XLK (near term): I'm bearish on the tech sector via XLK. I'm looking to short on a break below Friday's swing low of 179.80, with a first target at the 0.382 Fib retracement of 171.57. If a bid shows up there on volume, cover the short; if not, hold for the 50% retracement at 163.11, where I'd cover remaining risk.

MRVL is the name I'm watching on the long side. After Nvidia's Jensen Huang called Marvell 'the next trillion-dollar company' at Computex, the stock gapped more than 32% higher on June 2 — its largest one-day gain on record — before getting caught in Friday's chip wreck and closing at 263.47. My zone to add is at or around 219.55, roughly 16.7% below Friday's close — a level with real confluence: it marks a full fill of the June 2nd gap back to the pre-gap close and a test of the 200-day moving average. If the broad market's downside targets are hit and a bid starts to return, that's where I'll begin building the long.

How to Play It: For portfolio hedging, long SPY puts at the 715/712 strikes — lining up with the ~7,155/7,122 index zone — or short /ES or /MES futures into any early-week strength. To express the tech-sector short more directly, long XLK puts at the 170/163 strikes, which line up with the 171.57 (0.382 Fib) first target and the 163.11 (50% retracement) cover-risk level. Once those downside targets are hit, I'll be looking to add long exposure in the beaten AI leaders: MRVL, META, and NOW.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Scituate, MA — Egypt Beach

The first week off has been filled with spearfishing, surfing, watching the market from afar, and — most importantly — preparing for Level 3 of the CMT coming up this Thursday. We got some swell in town for the first time in a month or so last weekend, a great way to kick off the summer with some waves and warm weather. Got the shortboard out last Saturday, and Sunday my brothers and I messed around on our longboards.

During the week I got on the spear gun heavy. Nailed 5 tautog over the last week and hit a personal record yesterday with a 21-inch, 5.5-lb shot. From those fish I made fish tacos, fish sandwiches, and some fried filets for the family.

Once I finish the test this Thursday, focus shifts back to the markets — and to getting our van dialed in for our departure on August 9th. If you want to follow along with our van travels, we're on Instagram @a.overland.adventure!

Chart Your Territory

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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