A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

This week was a study in how fast a narrative can flip. Monday through Thursday extended the global bond rout that has defined the last month: the 10-year Treasury yield kept grinding higher, cresting at 5.344% intraday Thursday, the highest level since 2002 and beyond the 2007-era peak we flagged last issue. ISM Manufacturing added fuel, with its prices component showing building cost pressures. The Dow and S&P both traded lower into Friday, the dollar pushed to an 18-month high, and gold came under real pressure.

Then Friday happened. September payrolls came in at just 29,000 against a consensus of roughly 84,000 to 90,000, and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000: July flipped from a gain to a loss of 10,000, and August was cut to 133,000 from 162,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. There was nuance underneath the headline: the household survey showed a gain of 406,000, and the participation rate rose to a four-month high of 61.8%, so part of the unemployment uptick reflects more people entering the workforce. Average hourly earnings also missed, rising 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year. After revisions, the three-month average for payrolls sits near 50,000, which one economist described as 'solid' rather than 'hot.'

Markets moved fast. The 10-year fell more than 5 basis points to roughly 5.18% within minutes of the release, and Fed funds futures repriced: CME FedWatch now shows only about a 17% chance of an October hike, down from roughly 36% a week earlier, with Wednesday's cooler PCE print doing part of the work before Friday's report finished it. Stocks opened higher and stayed there. The S&P gained 0.73%, the Dow 0.49%, and the Nasdaq 1.19%, touching an intraday record on Nvidia strength, and the VIX fell more than 6% to 15.40. Brent dropped below $100.

One wrinkle worth flagging: the yield drop didn't hold. The 10-year reversed back up and closed near 5.28%, slightly higher on the day and not far from Thursday's peak. The jobs report moved hike odds far more than it moved yields, so the lower-yields story is real but not yet confirmed. For the week, the Nasdaq Composite was the only major average to finish higher (+0.45%), while the S&P (−0.27%) and the Dow finished lower despite Friday's strength.

Net for the week: a genuine inflection point. Two weeks ago, this series was tracking a market bracing for more hikes after a unanimous, hawkish September decision. This week's jobs report handed the Fed cover to pause at its October 27–28 meeting, with Schwab's Collin Martin noting it takes the pressure off the Fed to hike aggressively. With the S&P up roughly 13% year to date and about 1.2% below its August record entering Q4, the setup hinges on whether this repricing sticks. The next tests are the September CPI and PPI reports ahead of the October 28 decision, and December hike odds are still above 75%.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

The Depth Gauge split this week between momentum and structure. Momentum improved sharply. The McClellan Oscillator jumped to −14.55 from −37.56, NYSE net advances rose to 599 from 314, and net new highs versus lows narrowed to −1.40% from −4.80%. Net advances have now been positive two weeks running, and 599 is the strongest reading since early August. That lines up with Friday's jobs-report rally, when a single session of broad buying pulled the faster gauges off their lows.

The structural readings kept eroding. The share of S&P names above their 50-day fell to 25.00%, the lowest we've logged, meaning three in four stocks are below a short-term trend line while the index sits about 1.2% from its record. The 200-day reading slipped to 45.40% from 48.60%, below half the index for a second straight week and well down from 74% seven weeks ago.

The put/call ratio rose to 0.58 from 0.52, undoing last week's slide into complacency. Options traders added protection into a week that included a bond rout to the highest 10-year yield since 2002, which fits Fear & Greed falling to 31 in Tide Watch.

The sector rotation data tells the same story from a different angle. Only two sectors lead, both are losing momentum, and the capital that is moving is going into defensives and a few single names. Net it out: Friday's repricing bought the tape some short-term relief, but the participation underneath hasn't turned. For the NFP rally to become a durable move, the 50- and 200-day readings have to stop falling. Until they do, treat the McClellan bounce as a one-week improvement, not a trend change.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

The S&P traded a familiar pattern this week: strong opens that faded as rising yields pulled the market lower. That continued through Thursday, when Micron's blowout report Wednesday night couldn't hold the chip bid as the 10-year pushed to 5.34%, its highest since 2002. Price pulled back to a confluence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages near 7,657, then bounced to close the week at 7,722.72.

From here, the technical case for the next leg is intact. Price bounced cleanly off the moving averages, the RSI has plenty of room before overbought, and Friday's weak NFP cut the odds of an October hike to about 17%. That sets up a run into the seasonally strongest quarter of the year, with the S&P finishing higher in 26 of the last 30 fourth quarters. The caveat is that Friday's rates relief was only partial. The 10-year fell to about 5.18% on the report but closed near 5.28%, so the move toward lower yields isn't confirmed yet. That's the line to watch from here.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

Sentiment kept easing off the late-September extreme, but it hasn't cleared the hurdle that matters. AAII bulls rose another 2.0 points to 34.6% and bears fell to 46.5%, narrowing the spread to −11.9%. That's still the 11th straight week the spread has sat below its historical average, and bears have now run above average for 34 consecutive weeks. Fear & Greed went the other way, dropping to 31 from 38, drifting toward Extreme Fear while the S&P sits about 1.2% from its record. By our framework, that's a constructive setup: the crowd is nervous into a market that keeps holding up.

The futures data is where this week gets interesting. Commercials grew their net long for a third straight week, to +35,281 from +28,880, so the hedgers have gone from a −50,017 net short three weeks ago to clearly bullish. Large speculators moved the opposite way for the fourth straight week, pushing their net short to −142,499, the deepest of the series. Small specs added a little to their longs at +107,218. The same three-way split from the last two issues is still in place, and the large-spec short keeps widening against it.

One timing caveat: CFTC positioning reflects the prior Tuesday, so this read likely predates Friday's jobs report. The sharp repricing in hike odds isn't in these numbers yet, and next week's COT will show whether large specs pressed their short or covered into the move.

Net it out: retail fear is easing but not gone, Fear & Greed is flashing the kind of reading that has marked bottoms before, and commercials are positioned bullish for a third week. The one holdout is large specs, who haven't stopped adding to their short. If Friday's NFP repricing sticks, they're the group with the most to unwind.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

For most of this week, the same force that has driven this market all quarter was in control: yields. The 10-year Treasury climbed to 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level since 2002, and the S&P spent the week under pressure until Friday's jobs report changed the conversation. September payrolls came in at just 29,000 against expectations of roughly 85,000, with the prior two months revised down by a combined 60,000. October hike odds fell to about 17%, from about 36% a week earlier. The S&P closed the week at 7,722.72, about 1.2% below its August record, and the Nasdaq was the only major average to finish higher.

That sets up the road into year-end. A pause at the Fed's October 28 decision would ease the pressure behind most of this quarter's pullbacks, and the calendar is on our side: the S&P has finished higher in 26 of the last 30 fourth quarters. From here, our 8,200 year-end target is about 6% away. The caveat is that the relief so far is only partial. The 10-year closed near 5.28%, not far from its high, and December hike odds are still above 75%, so the market has pushed the next hike back rather than taken it off the table. For this to become a real year-end run, yields have to confirm what the jobs report suggested. That's what I'm watching in the levels below.

On the Radar & Game Plan

Sector rotation: Under a flat-looking tape, leadership is narrow and defensive. Only two of eleven sectors sit in the Leading quadrant, Energy and Health Care, and both lost RS-Ratio and RS-Momentum this week. Energy's strength is a refiners trade (Valero, Marathon, Phillips 66) while oilfield services lag, and Health Care leadership sits in just 31% of its holdings. Technology holds the highest RS-Ratio at 104.26 but sits in the Weakening quadrant, with AMD (+29.2% versus its sector ETF over four weeks) doing outsized work. Communication Services crossed into Improving, but it is almost entirely a Meta story (+22.2% relative, with breadth at 22%). Real Estate and Utilities, the most rate-sensitive sectors, deteriorated fastest, and Financials slipped on both axes. This data covers the full week, so it blends four days of yield pressure with Friday's rally. Next week's read will show whether the repricing changes leadership.

BE: Bloom Energy had a volatile week. The stock fell nearly 9% Monday on reports of delays at Oracle's Project Jupiter site, then jumped nearly 11% Tuesday after Oracle reaffirmed the relationship, topping out just above $302 before fading and closing the week at $289.15, essentially unchanged from last Friday's $288.70. The stock continues to hold firmly above the 20-day SMA, but technical momentum is weakening. The MACD has flattened out and is no longer rising, and the RSI has fallen to 58, near the neutral range. To protect gains and stay long, I'm placing a sell stop just under the 20-day, around $270. That sits about 6.6% below Friday's close and locks in roughly a 12.5% gain against my $240 average cost.

AVGO: The next name I'm watching is Broadcom. The stock is well off its highs, trading at $355 versus a peak near $495 earlier this year, a decline of about 28%. The business hasn't followed the price lower. August-quarter revenue of $29.59 billion was up 85.5% from a year ago and about 33% from the prior quarter, with AI semiconductor revenue up 221%. At roughly 19 times trailing sales, down from nearly 30 times in April, the valuation has compressed as the sales have kept growing.

The stock is now nearing a critical support zone on the longer-term chart, marked by the red uptrend line. It closed Thursday just under $345 and bounced 3.4% Friday to take it back above. If price can reclaim and hold $345, and momentum returns to the upside, with a rising RSI in step with price, I'll look to add or initiate a position.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Massachusetts

This week we flew home to see family and friends and celebrate the wedding of our friends Sydney and Kyle. It's been an amazing stretch being back, and just as exciting to think about getting back on the road to explore Colorado. Since landing, I've gotten some surfing in, cooked for the family, and spent time relaxing at home and getting to the gym.

The wedding, the reason we came home, was absolutely beautiful, and we couldn't be happier for them as they start their lives together. Ava was a bridesmaid and also did the floral work, which kept her busy all week, so she's especially looking forward to relaxing for the rest of our time here. I'll be focused on work and the market playbook laid out above, and I expect to push out the first Rapid Take this week. Stay tuned!

Chart Your Territory

Never miss an issue

Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home  ·  Archive  ·  Subscribe