A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

If you just glanced at the headline weekly return, you'd see an uneventful week — the market quietly squeezing out another gain. That was decidedly not the case. The week opened the way the prior one closed: Monday posted early gains before selling off sharply on escalating conflict in the Middle East and the anticipation of a hot CPI print. By Tuesday the index had been driven to an intraday and weekly low of 7,237 — right at the rising 50-day moving average — before reversing to close Tuesday higher. Wednesday it rolled over again on the CPI print, then Thursday retested the 50-day and bounced for real, carrying into a Friday rally that closed the week +0.65% at 7,431.

As the market fell, the mood turned — sentiment flipped increasingly pessimistic and shifted toward fear, the prior week's overbought condition unwound, and the VIX spiked as price tested the 50-day. From its intraweek high of 23.34 on Tuesday, the VIX then collapsed roughly 24% to close at 17.67, as Trump signaled yet another near-peace deal and the market took the chance to buy the dip ahead of Friday's blockbuster SpaceX (SPCX) IPO.

The macro picture tells a more concerning story. May CPI came in line with expectations at +0.5% for the month, putting the year-over-year figure at 4.2% — its highest annual reading since April 2023. The bulk of that traces to energy: the energy index ran up 23.5% year-over-year and gasoline roughly 40%, both tied to the Iran energy shock. You can see the energy-driven nature of it in the core reading, which — stripped of food and energy — came in at just +0.2% month-over-month, below the +0.3% consensus, and a tamer +2.9% year-over-year. Producer inflation pushed higher too, with PPI up 6.5% year-over-year, its highest since November 2022 and slightly above consensus.

Why does it matter? Because the prospect of a cut has vanished entirely — a hike is now almost fully priced in for December. With the market losing the support of a Fed that was expected to ease and inheriting one now leaning toward tightening, the key will be the rhetoric out of Kevin Warsh at his first meeting as Chair this Wednesday, 6/17. Additional data on deck this week: May retail sales.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

Last week the depth gauge was the contrarian's warning — internals bleeding out while the index clung to its highs. This week the gauge tells the opposite story, and it tells it cleanly.

Start with the McClellan Oscillator. It closed Friday at +20.18, an almost 85-point swing from last week's −64.67, and — more to the point — it crossed back above the zero line. That centerline crossover is the tell that the short-term breadth momentum which had been leaking since mid-May has turned. It wasn't a lone signal, either. NYSE net advances flipped from −1,113 last Friday to +867 this Friday: advancers outpacing decliners by a wide margin, the kind of broad participation that puts a floor under a tape.

Underneath, the participation story is widening rather than narrowing. The share of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average thrust from 54.6% to 61.2%, and net new 52-week highs ticked up from a 3.7% to a 5.0% ten-day average. More names are doing the work, not fewer. The one reading that didn't budge was the percentage above the 200-day, holding flat near 61.6% — and that's the honest caveat: this is a breadth recovery, not yet a breadth breakout. Long-term participation is steady, not expanding.

The lone yellow flag sits in the options pits. The equity put/call ratio fell to 0.54 — call buyers crowding in, a complacent reading that runs hot against the fear you'll see in the next section. Hold that thought. For now, the depth gauge has flipped from warning to confirmation: when the market tested support at its 50-day moving average this week, the internals showed up to defend it.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

From its intraday high of 7,620 on Tuesday, June 2nd, the SPX fell 5.03% to an intraday low of 7,237 on Tuesday, June 9th — landing squarely in the support region I flagged last week. That zone paired the rising 50-day moving average with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement sitting just beneath it at ~7,121. Here's the tell: price never even reached the 50-day. The decline bottomed within 38 points of the rising average (~7,199) before buyers stepped in and drove a +2.06% intraday reversal off the low (see Tuesday's candle). Demand showed up above the line, not at it — exactly what you want to see at a level you're leaning on.

Momentum was washed out at that low. The near-term 14-period RSI dropped to 23 — firmly oversold — while the daily, one-year RSI held at 40.64. With the support zone holding and a ceasefire headline lending a tailwind, the SPX gained 2.67% off the Tuesday low to close the week +0.65% at 7,431.

So where does that leave us? Not out of the woods. The bounce stalled at the 20-day moving average near 7,465 — a level the market rejected three times intraweek before closing just beneath it. Three tests without a break makes that the near-term line to clear. But the bigger structure still points higher, exactly as I outlined last week: this reads as a pullback within an ongoing advance, not a reversal. On the 1-year daily, the week carved a higher low — the March 30th low at 6,313 (RSI 27) and now the June 9th low at 7,237 (RSI 40). A higher price low, confirmed by a higher low in RSI — no bearish divergence, and the trend off the March bottom stays intact.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

Here's where my read parts ways with the headlines. I treat sentiment as a contrarian gauge — when the crowd gets washed-out bearish, the market is usually closer to a bottom than a top; when everyone's euphoric, that's when you check the life raft. This week the crowd panicked, and it did so right as the market found its footing.

The AAII survey did the heavy lifting. Bulls slumped to 30.4% while bears surged more than ten points to 47.7%, the most pessimistic reading in months. CNN's Fear & Greed Index slid into Fear at 34, down from 42 a week ago. The pros backed away too: NAAIM exposure fell from 86.8 to 79.27 as tactical managers trimmed risk into the CPI scare. By the textbook, that's broad-based fear. By my book, that's fuel.

And the positioning data backs the contrarian case. In the S&P futures, the commercials — the hedgers usually tagged as the smart money — are net long, while the large speculators, the trend-following funds, sit net short, caught leaning the wrong way after the early-June slide. That's the configuration that tends to show up near lows: hedgers quietly accumulating while the speculative crowd presses the prior trend. Small specs are net long too — a mild caveat, since retail is the last cohort I'd follow — but the weight of the positioning sits with the commercials.

The one dissent is the options pit. That 0.54 equity put/call from the Depth Gauge — call buyers crowding in — says not everyone is afraid; there's complacency under the surface fear. So the washout isn't total, and I'd temper the signal accordingly. But tie the rest together and the week makes sense: the crowd's fear spiked exactly as price found support at the 50-day moving average, and unlike a genuine top — where sentiment cracks while the internals quietly rot — this time the breadth and the smart money both showed up to confirm. The McClellan flipped positive, advancers outpaced decliners, participation widened, and the commercials sat long. A fearful crowd over a supportive tape, with the hedgers leaning into it, is the combination that marks a low far more often than a top. The tide looked like it was rushing out. The depth gauge — and the people who hedge for a living — say it had already started rolling back in.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

We've charted the conditions, gauged the depth, read the price action, and watched the tide — and this week, the instruments lined up. The market sold off into support and the crowd panicked into fear, but right as the surveys flipped bearish, the internals flipped the other way: breadth confirmed the bounce, the commercials leaned long, and price carved a higher low at the 50-day. A fearful crowd over a supportive tape, with the smart money positioned for upside — that's the profile of a low, not a top. So I'm setting the heading constructive into the week ahead, with a hand kept firmly on the wheel: the 20-day at ~7,465 sits overhead as the first hurdle to clear, and Warsh's first meeting Wednesday is the kind of event risk that can swing the tape either direction. Here's how I'm navigating it.

On the Radar & Game Plan

Bullish on tech via XLK. I'm looking to go long on a break above 186 — this week's resistance — targeting a retest of the 198.35 high from June 3rd. I'll play it with long XLK calls at the 200 strike. One scheduling note: this is a holiday-shortened week, with Juneteenth closing the market Friday, so I'm looking to open the position this morning and cover risk into the Fed meeting if the target hits before Wednesday.

MRVL found support this week at ~253 — the opening price off its June 2nd gap-up — and the hold showed real demand, as buyers who missed the gap used the pullback to add. It closed Friday at 279.70, back near the week's highs. I'm continuing to add to the long here, and may also play the short-term recovery through the 320 calls. Added tailwind: Marvell joins the S&P 500 at the open on June 22nd, which brings a wave of forced index-fund buying right behind this setup.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Scituate, MA

The saga on the spear gun continued this week — and just as the market looks ready to keep trending higher, so do the personal records on the tautog. I landed another personal best this week, a 23.75-incher, on one of the most beautiful, clear-water days we've had around here in a while.

On top of that, I finished up Level 3 of the CMT this past Thursday — and what a relief it is to have it behind me. Thank you to everyone who sent good luck my way.

This week will be filled with watching the markets, hopefully a few more good fish, and come Thursday it's time to start rocking and rolling on the van — knocking out the projects we need done ahead of our departure.

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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