A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

Hoping everyone had a fun and safe 4th of July weekend this year! The first abbreviated week of the third quarter closed higher, the SPX gaining 1.8% to 7,483 as it clawed back the prior week's tech-led selloff. But the headline gain masks a sharp rotation underneath. The weak front-loaded its gains — a Monday-Tuesday Mag7 and chip rebound carried the S&P to 7,499 as the second quarter closed — before leadership abruptly reversed. Semiconductors, which had nearly doubled in the first half, drew heavy profit-taking: the SOX shed 6.7% on the week, Micron dropped over 10% (still up 260% year-to-date), and Intel and Marvell each fell about 9%.

As the generals retreated, the troops advanced. Money rotated out of mega-cap tech and into the broad market, lifting the Dow to a record 52,900 (+2.0%) while the Nasdaq's late-week chip slide trimmed its weekly gain to a still-strong 2.1%. Small caps treaded water — the Russell 2000 flat at 2,996 (−0.05%) — while the VIX sank 12.3% to 16.15 and the dollar slipped 0.48%. Volatility draining out of a market that keeps grinding higher.

Stepping back, the first half of 2026 goes in the books as a strong one, capped by the best quarter since 2020. For the half, the Dow climbed 8.9% (its best first half since 2021), the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq led the majors at 12.8%. The standout, though, was the Russell 2000: up nearly 22% for its best first half since 1991, as the AI-spending boom finally broadened beyond mega-cap tech into small caps. That broadening — the average stock catching a bid while the cap-weighted leaders rest — is the throughline into the second half.

If Issue 3's story was a hawkish Fed penciling in a hike, this week told the other side. June payrolls landed with a thud — just 57,000 jobs against expectations near 110,000, the weakest in four months, with April and May both revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, but for the wrong reason: a shrinking labor force, with participation sliding to 2021 lows. A cooling labor market, plain and simple.

Markets read it as the Fed's off-ramp. The odds of a September hike fell to a coin flip near 50%, down from roughly two-thirds the day before; the 2-year yield dropped to 4.14%, the 10-year eased to 4.46%, and the dollar slid. Speaking at the ECB's Sintra forum midweek, Warsh reinforced the shift — noting inflation expectations had eased and there was "no urgency" to tighten — though he kept one hand on the price-stability bible, reminding markets that "prices are too high."

And the disinflation tailwind starts with oil. Crude has now round-tripped the entire war: WTI fell to roughly $67, down nearly 20% in two weeks and back to levels last seen the first trading day after the conflict began, as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalized. A late-June flare-up — Iranian drones near shipping, a U.S. retaliatory strike — briefly threatened the interim deal, but de-escalation held and the selling resumed. With energy, the supply shock that drove CPI to a 4.2% handle just three weeks ago, now deflating, the inflation math that had the Fed leaning hawkish is quietly reversing. The setup into the second half: a cooling labor market and falling energy pulling the hike off the table, just as the rotation broadens the rally's base.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

If last issue's gauge flashed a divergence — price up, breadth thinning — this week it flipped to confirmation. The internals broadened across the board, and the improvement was concentrated in exactly the readings that matter most for durability.

Start with participation. The share of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average climbed to 67% from ~64.5%, and the percentage above the 200-day pushed to 67.6% from ~65.25% — the strongest long-term breadth reading in weeks. This is the number I've been waiting on: for three issues the 200-day figure sat pinned in the low-60s, refusing to expand. It finally broke higher. Net new 52-week highs told the same story, jumping to a 10.6 ten-day average from ~6.75. More names are doing the work, not fewer — the definition of a healthy tape.

The McClellan Oscillator ticked up to +21.95 from ~+17, holding comfortably above zero and building momentum. NYSE net advances came in positive at +619 — and while that's off the prior ~800, the intraday tape was stronger than the close suggests, printing a net +1,600 at its high before some late fade. The lone caution sits where it usually does: the equity put/call sank to 0.53 from ~0.85, a swing back to call-heavy complacency that's worth flagging against the fearful survey readings you'll see in Tide Watch.

Put it together and the depth gauge confirms the rotation. The cap-weighted index barely budged, but underneath, breadth expanded on every participation measure — the average stock is finally joining the mega-caps that carried the first half. That long-term breadth finally breaking above its range is the most encouraging internal development in a month. The one yellow flag — complacent options positioning — keeps this from being an all-clear, but the weight of the evidence says the rally's foundation got broader, not narrower.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

Last week opened with a test of key support: the rising 50-day moving average, which sat at 7,363 as price probed it Monday against the prior Friday's 7,354 close. Buyers defended it hard. Price bounced through Monday and Tuesday, filling the gap left between the 6/22 and 6/23 closes (7,472 down to 7,366), and by Wednesday the SPX had run roughly 2.17% off the low — before stalling at a downward-sloping trendline drawn off the June 2nd intraday record of 7,620. The 50-day, meanwhile, has climbed with price all week, rising to 7,394 by Thursday's close.

That upper trendline is one edge of a bigger structure. Since the record high, the index has carved a series of lower highs against a series of higher lows — the price action compressing into what increasingly looks like a diamond top. Price first entered the pattern on the May 6th gap up at 7,294, the level that has anchored support ever since, while the rising 50-day at 7,394 now reinforces the pattern's lower trendline as first support. The last two sessions capture the standoff: both Wednesday and Thursday printed doji candles — long wicks, wide intraday swings, but almost no net change close-to-close. Buyers and sellers, deadlocked at the apex.

So the pattern sets the near-term map. Treating the diamond as active, a break below the 50-day and the lower rising trendline near ~7,390 would confirm the bearish resolution; a decisive push above ~7,500 — the level the market failed to hold last week — negates it. This is a coiled spring, and the coming week should be the one that releases it.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

I read sentiment as a contrarian — and this week the crowd got more fearful, not less, even as the tape broadened and ground higher. That's the tell worth paying attention to.

Retail led the retreat. AAII bulls plunged 13.6 points to 31.4%, while bears surged to 42.3% — a bull-bear spread that flipped decisively negative in a single week. CNN's Fear & Greed Index slid to 32, deeper into Fear from 37. And the pros pulled back too: NAAIM exposure dropped from 98.59 to 84.69, active managers shaving roughly 14 points of equity risk off the top. Across retail and professional alike, the money got more cautious into a rising market.

That's the setup a contrarian wants to see. Fear building while price holds and breadth expands isn't the profile of a top — tops are built on greed and narrowing participation, the opposite of what the depth gauge showed this week. A market that keeps climbing while the crowd keeps flinching has fuel left in the tank: sidelined cash that has to chase if the breakout holds.

The one dissent comes from the futures positioning. In the Commitments of Traders data, commercials — the hedgers often tagged as the smart money — have flipped to net short, reversing last issue's net-long stance. It's a caution flag, and it tempers how hard I'd lean on the contrarian signal: when the crowd's fear is loud but the hedgers are leaning short, the washout isn't as clean as it looks. Constructive underneath, but not an all-clear.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

This week my focus narrows to one question: how the diamond top from Dead Reckoning resolves. The map is clean. Resistance sits overhead at 7,500 — the level the market failed to hold last week — and on a sustained break above it, I'm looking to go long on a break of last week's high near 7,540. The bearish side is the mirror: a breakdown below the 50-day and rising lower trendline near 7,390 flips me tactically bearish. With no major economic data on the calendar and the week before earnings season kicks off, my focus is solely on price action and how this pattern plays out.

On the Radar & Game Plan

I'll look to enter a tactical long on XLF on a break above this year's highs — the January peak near 57, only about 1.3% overhead — with confirmation on a sustained move above that level. For a single name to express it, JPM stands out — it's outperformed both its sector and its peers over the past year.

The key risk is earnings, which kick off next week — and the banks report first. So this is a wait-for-confirmation trade: let this week's price action confirm the setup as the SPX pattern resolves, rather than front-running it into event risk. Patience is the edge here.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Scituate, MA

Welcome back, and a belated Happy 250th to America! I spent the first half of last week recovering from deviated septum surgery — done the Thursday prior, and the reason there was no issue. Recovery's been seamless so far, and being able to actually breathe through my nose after all these years feels amazing. I wasn't cleared for much activity, so naturally I got bored and Ava and I made more progress on Vanderson. With the help of my little brother Nick, a skilled carpenter, we finalized the clothing cabinets, added to the kitchen, and squared away some storage. A few small projects left — mostly décor and little touches now — before we hit the road full time on August 9th. I'm not sure I've said much about that here: come August, we're moving into the van full time to travel across the U.S. for the next several months.

It was a hot, beautiful week on the water — and a painful one not to be able to dunk my head in the ocean. I spent the 3rd and 4th out with friends and family, baked in the sun, and had a lot of fun. We also lost our Auntie Linda to her battle with pancreatic cancer on the 4th. A day that already carries so much weight for this country now carries more for our family. Rest easy, Linda.

Looking ahead, this week I'm building out an options-screening monitor to map where dealer and hedge positioning sits — a tool to help time reversals in intraday price action — knocking out more van work as parts arrive, and finally getting back in the gym Thursday after a mandatory two-week hiatus letting my nose heal.

If you want to follow along with the van build and our travels once we hit the road in August, we're on Instagram at @a.overland.adventure.

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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