A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

Welcome back to Charted Territory. It's been a busy month for me personally — one that had me step back from the markets for a stretch — and the tape was every bit as busy, volatile, and exciting as my month was. A slew of data hit all at once: macro, earnings, and geopolitics all landing in the same few weeks. But the throughline was simple. July was a month of exactly the kind of rotation and broadening we saw starting to surface as June closed. And despite some real intramonth drawdowns, the S&P held flat on the month (−0.13%) while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2%. That gap is the story: the broad market absorbed the tech air-pocket instead of following it down.

The baton is being passed — from the hyperscalers to the picks and shovels, the companies set to receive the hundreds of billions being spent to build out AI infrastructure. The mega-caps largely got punished for their lofty capex guidance, as fear of dwindling free cash flow drove sharp post-earnings drawdowns: Meta fell roughly 9% on a light guide, and Alphabet dropped after lifting 2026 capex to as much as $205 billion and posting its first negative quarterly free cash flow since its 2004 IPO. Microsoft and Amazon, by contrast, were rewarded for showing the spend converting into cloud revenue. The market isn't rejecting AI — it's re-pricing who gets paid for it, and increasingly that's the chip and infrastructure names downstream of the spend.

Underneath the noise, the earnings themselves were strong. With 285 S&P names reported, 87% beat expectations by an average of 14%, and year-over-year EPS growth is tracking around 22% — a genuinely strong season landing under a nervous tape.

Then the Fed. On July 29, the FOMC held the funds rate at 3.5–3.75% on a 9-3 vote — the most dissents in one direction since September 2016, with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan all pushing for a hike. Warsh embraced the split ("I asked for a good family fight and I got one") and pointedly refused to call it a pause. The takeaway for markets: this was a hawkish hold. The following morning's data did little to soften it — June PCE cooled to 3.7% headline and 3.3% core, but the print predates July's energy rebound, and Q2 GDP came in soft at 1.5%. The bond market didn't buy the cooling: the 10-year yield jumped to 4.743%, its highest since January 2025, and the 30-year hit levels last seen in 2007. Fed funds futures now price a 64% chance of a September hike. Notably, the dollar fell below 100 on the week even as yields spiked — a yen-intervention story cutting against the rate move.

So we close July with a market that broadened enough to keep the S&P afloat while the Nasdaq took its lumps — a constructive divergence on the surface. But the internals and the chart tell a more delicate story. That's where we're headed next: a diamond top on the S&P that looks to have been negated, and a Nasdaq that appeared ready to confirm one before reversing hard off its 100-day and the 10% correction line this past Friday.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

If Current Conditions showed a market that broadened enough to hold the S&P flat, the Depth Gauge adds the fine print — and it's more cautious than the headline tape lets on. The internals are splitting by timeframe: long-term participation is still building, but the short-term thrust that powered the June–July rally is quietly fading.

Start with the good news, because it anchors the broadening thesis. The percentage of S&P names above their 200-day rose to 68.0% from 66.8% — the healthiest long-term breadth reading we've logged, and hard evidence that the advance isn't just a handful of mega-caps. That's the structural floor under the market.

But look one layer in and the momentum is cooling. The McClellan Oscillator sits at −11.72 — improved from −24.62, yet still below zero, meaning breadth momentum is negative even as it recovers. NYSE net advances actually flipped to −148 from +579 the week prior, and here's the tell: that negative breadth came on a week the S&P closed higher. When the index rises but more stocks fall than advance, the move is being carried by a shrinking group of large names — the opposite of broadening, at least short-term. The percentage above the 50-day slipped to 62.4% from 65.8%, and new 52-week highs collapsed to 0.20% from 2.80% — participation at the highs is drying up fast.

The caution light is the same one flashing since Issue 4: the CBOE 5-day put/call fell to 0.63 from 0.79. The options crowd is getting complacent — leaning into calls and cheap protection just as the short-term breadth deteriorates and the survey crowd stays fearful. That divergence between a greedy options tape and a fearful survey crowd is exactly what we unpack in Tide Watch.

Net it out: the long-term structure is intact and improving, but the short-term internals are rolling over beneath a flat index. That's a market losing thrust at the highs without yet breaking — the textbook backdrop for the chart story we turn to next. Because this is precisely the kind of tape that carves out a topping pattern: an S&P that flirted with a diamond top before negating it, and a Nasdaq that looked ready to confirm one before reversing off its 100-day and the 10% correction line on Friday

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

Last issue, on July 5th, we flagged a diamond top forming on the S&P — a pattern that warns of a potential reversal at the highs. A month later, that warning looks to be resolving bullishly. Friday's reversal, followed by continued strength into this morning's open, has the pattern on the verge of negation as mega-cap tech claws back its post-earnings losses and a fresh round of positive Iran headlines pressures oil lower.

Here's how it played out. The S&P began breaking out of the diamond on July 6th, then ran straight into resistance at the prior record highs and the round 7,600 level by July 15th. That collision coincided with the heart of earnings season, cementing 7,600 as confirmed resistance and setting up a −3.53% decline to a low of 7,313 in the Fed-induced selloff last Wednesday. Crucially, the market found support roughly 1.35% above its rising 100-day, held it, and gained both Thursday and Friday before gapping higher at today's open. The SPX is back testing 7,600 as of this writing — this time with momentum behind it.

The level that matters remains 7,620 — the June 2nd record. The confirmation sequence is straightforward: first a close above 7,600, then a break of the 7,620 record. Clear both and the diamond top is formally negated. Right now that looks like the path of least resistance, with the FOMC and the bulk of earnings behind us and revived optimism around an Iran deal draining the risk premium out of oil.

The Nasdaq is the more precarious sibling, and it's the chart to respect here. Where the S&P negated its diamond, the Nasdaq Composite looked ready to confirm one — until it reversed hard off two levels stacked right on top of each other: its 100-day moving average and the −10% correction line. That bounce on Friday, extended into today's tech-led rally, is what's driving the recovery. But it's a reversal off a support test, not a breakout — meaning the Nasdaq is climbing back from the edge, not running from a position of strength. The S&P held its structure; the Nasdaq had to be rescued at the cliff. Same rally, very different footing.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

If the Depth Gauge showed the internals cooling, Tide Watch shows who's positioned where — and the tension between the crowds is the story this month. Retail is fearful, the pros are trimming, the options tape is complacent, and the futures crowd is mixed. Four signals, and they don't agree.

Start with the survey crowd, because by our framework it reads as a contrarian positive. AAII bears sat at 42.1%, barely off 42.3% the week prior, and bulls limped to just 31.0% — still far below the 37.5% historical average, with the spread deeply negative at −11.1%. CNN Fear & Greed told the same story: 42.5, up from 39.4 the week before, but still parked firmly in Fear. Six weeks into a grind back toward the highs, individual investors haven't come along. That persistent pessimism is the wall of worry — and as we've noted since Issue 4, when the crowd stays this fearful while price holds, it's usually the market's friend, not its enemy.

The professional money is more cautious, and that's the shift worth watching. NAAIM exposure fell to 79.70 from 84.02, meaning active managers trimmed into month-end rather than chasing — pulling back below their Q2 average of 87.19. So the pros de-risked into the Fed and the earnings gauntlet. Not a defensive crouch, but not conviction buying either.

The futures positioning rounds out the picture, and it's shifted meaningfully since June. Back then, commercials — the hedgers, typically the smart money — were net short around −206,000 contracts, a multi-year extreme that read as a real headwind. As of the latest 7/27 data, they've covered roughly half of that, sitting at −95,929. Reducing a large net short is constructive: the hedgers are leaning against this rally far less aggressively than they were at the June extreme. Large speculators have drifted to −17,196, essentially flat, while small speculators have built to +113,125 net long. That last line is the one to watch with a contrarian eye — when the least-informed money gets this committed to the upside while commercials still carry a net short, it's a yellow flag.

Then the contradiction that ties it together. While surveys and managers lean cautious, the options crowd is doing the opposite — the 5-day put/call from the Depth Gauge sits at just 0.63, call-heavy and complacent, with the VIX crushed back to 15.99. So we have a fearful survey crowd, a trimming professional crowd, small-spec futures longs building, and a greedy options tape — all at once. Divergences like this tend to resolve toward whichever crowd is leaning hardest at the extreme, and right now that's the options and small-spec money, loading upside into a rally the broader crowd doesn't trust and the internals say is cooling.

Net it out: the sentiment backdrop is constructive but no longer a clean contrarian tailwind. Retail survey fear is a floor, and the easing of the commercial short is a genuine positive. But three things now lean the other way — professional managers trimming, an options crowd loading calls, and small-spec futures longs building into the rally. It supports the bull case into the 7,620 test, but it's support that thins fast if the S&P fails at the record and the crowd that's leaning long has to unwind.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

This issue comes down to a direct split between the two indices. The S&P is working to negate its diamond top; the Nasdaq confirmed one — breaking below 28,500 before finding a confluence of support at its 100-day and the −10% correction level. As of this writing, markets are pushing higher to open August trading, and I'm treating this stretch of volatility as an opportunity: adding to names positioned to benefit from the hyperscalers' massive capex, and diversifying toward quality names that have been beaten down this year.

The levels I'm watching:

SPX — first, can it clear and close above 7,600 (constructive); then a close above the June 2 record of 7,620 confirms the diamond top is negated.
NDX — a reclamation of the 50-day at 29,380 would be the first real sign of negating its bearish diamond setup.

On the Radar & Game Plan

Last issue I flagged, via RRG, the Financials (XLF) as a strong contender in a broadening market ahead of earnings. That played out: financials rallied roughly 3% in July with strong relative outperformance versus both the SPX and NDX, pushing the sector squarely into the improving quadrant and gunning toward leading. JPM was the name to play it, and it continues to look strong as a diversifier as the market probes higher. Next, I'm watching for Technology (XLK) to reverse back toward the upper-right quadrant — a tell that would confirm the NDX recovery has legs.

For me, I'm playing the technology rebound through short-dated calls on CIFR and TSM. On CIFR specifically: the $32 calls dated September 18th. I saw unusual open interest and volume on these last Friday and used it as a chance to add a contract. The stock built a strong bull flag from November 2025 through April 2026 that has since played out — an initial break to $30 (the conservative target off the flag's high), but over a longer horizon, measuring from the April 2025 low, I see a potential target near $38. Price retested the breakout around $16 on July 17th and has climbed since; buyers stepped in, and we now trade above both the 50- and 100-day. If optimism returns to the AI-infrastructure trade, this is a high-beta name with room to run.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Acadia National Park - ME

Welcome back, people! July was the busiest, most exciting month of my life — and we're now staring down the departure date for our countrywide van-life travels this coming Sunday, August 9th. The last month was filled with friends, family, good eats, and a trip I'll remember for the rest of my life.

To start the month, I spent the first couple of weeks getting the van finalized — all those little projects we kept putting off are finally complete — and spent time with family, including a couple of boat trips: one to the Cape, and one up to Boston to see the tall ships.

Ava spent those two weeks traveling through Europe, and when she got back we kicked things off at Levitate Music Festival — the place where we met, and our third time there together. The following week we headed up to New Hampshire, first to celebrate her good friend Sydney's combined bachelorette/bachelor mountain weekend, and then on to our favorite place: Acadia National Park.

What Ava thought was just our anniversary celebration — our third time in the place where we first dreamed up the van buildout, one last trip before we hit the road — was actually something I'd been planning for months. We explored the park like two kids in a playground, ate some incredible lobster rolls, hiked countless miles, and on Tuesday morning, watching the sunrise from Gorham Mountain, I asked Ava to marry me.

She said yes.

We sat and watched the sun finish rising, basking in the excitement and the love of knowing we get to spend the rest of our lives together, living out the dreams we've been turning into reality since the start of our relationship.

So now, we're just six days from hitting the road full time — engaged, and making a dream we've talked about since day one actually happen. It's funny how life works: commit yourself to a dream, put in the work, and it will happen. It's simply a matter of time. Be sure to keep following along — the next letter will ship from somewhere down the East Coast, likely the Outer Banks of North Carolina, assuming our Starlink is behaving as planned.

If you want to follow along with the van build and our travels now that we're on the road, we're on Instagram at @a.overland.adventure.

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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