A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

Last issue we closed on a question mark: the S&P testing 7,600 with the diamond top hanging in the balance. This week, the market answered. The S&P didn't just clear 7,600 — it blew through the June record of 7,620 and kept going, closing Friday at an all-time high of 7,757.64, up 3.58% on the week, its largest weekly gain in months. The diamond top is negated. What the market said "maybe" to two weeks ago, it said yes to this week.

The move had real legs behind it. Monday, August 3rd's rally came on headlines of Iran ceasefire talks. Tuesday extended it hard — the S&P jumped 1.79% to a fresh record on a stacked catalyst day: blowout earnings (Palantir surged roughly 30% on what its CEO called an "otherworldly" quarter, Caterpillar topped $20 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time), paired with Treasury Secretary Bessent signaling a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land "today or tomorrow." Oil cracked on the news — Brent fell 5.4%, WTI fell 5.7% — pulling inflation expectations down with it. The week closed with the biggest catalyst of all: Friday's July jobs report showed employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs, a sharp miss against the 80,000 expected. Weak as that print is for the economy, the market read it as a green light — a cooling labor market takes the pressure off the Fed, and September hike odds fell accordingly.

The Nasdaq had the louder week. The Composite closed at 26,690.62, up 5.19%, its best week since April, as chip and AI names that were hammered in July's capex scare came roaring back — the Nasdaq is now up roughly 9% off its July 29 low. The Russell 2000 joined in too, climbing 3.47% back above the 3,000 level, evidence this wasn't a mega-cap-only move.

Elsewhere, the tape confirmed the risk-on shift. The dollar stayed soft, easing further as the weak jobs data reinforced the case for a Fed on hold. Gold, somewhat counterintuitively, also caught a strong bid — up nearly 6% on the week to its best levels in two months, as falling yields lowered the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset even as equities ripped. And the VIX got crushed back toward 15, down almost 7% on the week, a clean signal that fear had drained out of the market.

This week has been about digestion and confirmation. Markets pulled back modestly to start — the S&P slipped fractionally Monday and Tuesday as traders held off on new risk ahead of the week's key inflation print, with oil chopping around on renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. That caution paid off. Wednesday's July CPI report landed exactly on target: headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, core at 2.5%, both matching consensus and both ticking down from June. It's the first "clean," surprise-free inflation report after a volatile spring, and paired with last week's weak jobs data, it reinforces the same message: the Fed has real cover to stay on hold in September. Stocks are pushing higher again as I write this Wednesday afternoon, with the S&P back within a whisper of its Friday record.

Net it out: this was the stretch the diamond top broke, sentiment flipped, and the broadening trade that's been the throughline of this series delivered a genuine, broad-based record high — one that an in-line inflation print has now reinforced rather than derailed. The question isn't whether the breakout is real anymore. It's how much further it can run before the crowd that just flipped bullish gets tested

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

If Current Conditions told the headline story, the Depth Gauge confirms it wasn't a just a fluke. Every single internal tracked flipped direction this week, and five of six flipped bullish — this was a genuinely broad move, not a handful of mega-caps dragging the index higher.

Start with momentum. The McClellan Oscillator swung from −11.72 to +10.71, crossing back above zero — breadth momentum is now expanding, not contracting. NYSE net advances told the same story even more emphatically: from −148 last week to +858 this week, a full reversal that lines up with Friday's tape alone, where advancers outnumbered decliners by roughly 2-to-1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The participation numbers are the real headline, though. The percentage of S&P names above their 50-day climbed to 66.40% from 62.40%, and above their 200-day to 73.20% from 68.0% — the strongest long-term breadth reading we've logged all series. Nearly three-quarters of the index is now in a long-term uptrend. That's exactly the kind of internal confirmation you want behind a record high; it means the rally has genuine underlying support, not just a few names levitating the average. New 52-week highs ticked up too, to 1.40% from 0.20% — still modest in absolute terms, but climbing off the lows.

The one place the tape is leaning too far, too fast: the CBOE 5-day put/call fell again, to 0.54 from 0.63. That's a call-heavy, complacent options crowd, and it's the same signal we've flagged for weeks now — it just got more pronounced as the rally accelerated. It's not a warning to fade the move, but it is the thing that makes this market vulnerable to a sharp, sentiment-driven air pocket. The market held up well today though on the CPI print, which could have been the catalyst to pop that air pocket.

Net it out: the breadth is as good as it's looked all series, and it validates the record high as more than a mega-cap sprint. The risk isn't in the internals — it's in how crowded the bullish positioning has become on top of them.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

Last issue we laid out the negation levels for both the SPX and NDX diamond tops — the lines that would need to break for the bearish pattern to flip. The SPX didn't just clear them, it did so violently. Monday, price ran to an intraday high of 7,600 — the first level of resistance — before gapping straight over both that level and the diamond top's negation point at 7,620 (the prior record high), setting a fresh intraday record high the following Tuesday. From there, the market spent the rest of the week consolidating those gains, closing Friday at a weekly record of 7,757.64. This week, that consolidation has continued and extended: Wednesday's in-line CPI print pushed the S&P to a fresh intraday record of 7,793, with price holding near session highs into the close.

So now what. That's the question the chart read has to answer, and the setup argues for more room. Breadth backs it up — the Depth Gauge showed the broadest participation we've logged all series behind this move. But headline risk hasn't gone anywhere: the put/call ratio remains complacent at 0.54 and the VIX is subdued near 15, both signs that positioning has gotten one-sided even as the technical picture stays constructive.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

The crowd finally caught up to the tape, and fast. AAII bulls jumped 6.0 points to 37.0%, bears fell 4.2 points to 38.0%, and the spread swung from a deeply negative −11.1% to nearly flat at −0.9%. CNN Fear & Greed told the same story, flipping from 42.5 (Fear) to roughly 60 (Greed) — one of the sharpest sentiment reversals we've tracked all series.

That shift changes the setup. Two issues ago, persistent retail fear was a contrarian tailwind under this market. That's gone now — sentiment isn't doing any of the lifting anymore, which means the rally needs to keep earning it on fundamentals from here, not on a skeptical crowd capitulating into new longs.

The futures positioning adds a little nuance. As of August 3rd, commercials trimmed their net short further, to −84,376 from −95,929 — the hedgers continuing to lean less against this rally, a mild positive. But large speculators grew their net short to −27,258 from −17,196, while small speculators stayed heavily net long at +111,634. That combination — large specs pressing short into a record high while small specs stay maximally long — is worth watching. It's the kind of split that can fuel a squeeze higher if the large specs are wrong, or accelerate a drop if they're early and the crowded small-spec longs have to unwind.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

The majors are both returning to bullish price action, with the S&P having completely negated its bearish diamond top last week, and the Nasdaq-100 now taking its first strides toward the same. As we discussed last issue, it was key for the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 to begin negating its own diamond top — and the strong bounce off the 100-day and the technical correction level were early evidence that level could act as real support, making the pullback look more like a near-term shakeout within a strong uptrend off the April 2026 lows than the start of something worse. Last week put in the first real steps toward confirming that.

On the Radar & Game Plan

Long term, I remain bullish. Given the breadth and participation behind this move, I think this market can keep going higher.

With the VIX subdued and the put/call ratio complacent — at all-time highs, no less — it doesn't hurt to look into some cheap insurance. As the saying goes: buy volatility while it's cheap. If you're carrying a long S&P or Nasdaq book, adding some long-dated, low-cost puts might be worth it for peace of mind, even if you don't expect to need them.

A name I haven't talked about much before but that's become one of my larger portfolio positions is ServiceNow. I was early on this one and paid for it on the way down, but I've continued to add — I view it as an oversold AI-software winner that's kept showing strong fundamental growth despite getting caught up in the broader software selloff. The stock rallied off a longer-term uptrend line after a brutal 66% decline from its January 2025 record highs to this past April's lows. It's since carved out what looks like a near-term base and is now testing its 50-day (on the 5-year chart) at $131.50. It's a name I like here.

Lastly, as I hinted above, I'll be looking to take tactical longs on a break above last week's intraday high of 29,946, and fade rejections at that level. This is the level I view as in play for the Nasdaq near-term.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Frisco, NC (Outerbanks) - Week 1 in Vanderson

How we doing, people! This issue is shipping straight out of the van, down here on the Outer Banks in Frisco, North Carolina. If you don't know where that is, think of the TV show — but if you're actually curious, check it out on a map. We're basically sitting in the Atlantic Ocean.

It took a few days to find our groove down here — getting the campsite squared away, managing the heat (it's hot), and settling into our new little home after a 16-hour drive on Sunday. We went for the straight shot to this area, since there weren't many spots that pulled at us along the way down the coast, trading off driving and napping the whole way to get here faster. It wasn't that fast, though — LOL.

Day one was a lot of running around: final groceries, an extra cord to keep our fan running at night, and setting up the campsite and shade for the rest of our time here. Everything's working great so far — the van ran perfectly, our living space has been wonderful, and the WiFi's been solid (assuming you're all getting this). The beaches are gorgeous too, and we've already talked to a few locals who pointed us toward good surfing, spear fishing, and food and coffee spots. Such an awesome area down here, and I'm excited to share more once we've got a full week in.

For now, I've got to run — we're headed out to stargaze and see if we can catch any of the meteor shower that's supposed to be visible on the East Coast tonight.

If you want to follow along as we start full-time travels, we're on Instagram at @a.overland.adventure.

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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