A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

Three weeks in a row now. The S&P closed out the week at 7,785.76, up 0.4%, its third consecutive weekly gain — and this one came with two technical milestones we flagged as the levels to watch.

The week opened with some digestion. Monday, the market chopped after last week's big move, easing 0.06% to 7,753 as traders absorbed two headlines: Intel fell 4% on news it would offer $15 billion in common stock, and — more consequentially — Iran's foreign minister stated Sunday there was no possibility of restarting negotiations while the US continues "violating" the June memorandum of understanding. Oil jumped on the news, WTI up 5.1% to $82.13. Tuesday extended the pullback, with the S&P down 0.32% to 7,728 and the Nasdaq-100 off 0.33%, largely pre-inflation-day profit-taking after the prior week's run to record highs.

Then the macro data started landing, and it landed soft across the board. Wednesday's July CPI came in exactly in line with consensus — headline +0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, all matching expectations. The market pushed higher into the print and held gains: S&P +0.26% to 7,748, Nasdaq-100 +0.74% to 29,742. On the intraday chart, this is where the first technical setup completed — the Nasdaq-100 futures tested the resistance zone highlighted on the 10-day/30-minute chart ahead of the print, wicked lower on the release itself, then reclaimed the zone and held it as support. Textbook retest-and-hold.

Thursday is where both of our flagged levels gave way. July PPI came in light across the board — headline flat versus 0.2% expected, core +0.2% versus 0.3% expected — taking further pressure off the Fed's hand. The S&P topped 7,800 intraday for the first time ever, marking its 27th record close of the year, while the Nasdaq broke cleanly above the resistance zone we'd been watching on the intraday chart. More importantly for our readers: this was the session the Nasdaq-100 finally cleared 29,946 — the exact level flagged in Issue 6 as the trigger for tactical longs. It didn't just clear it; the index ran above 30,000 in the same move.

Friday closed the week with some giveback. Weak Michigan consumer sentiment (51 vs. 55 expected) and the first genuinely negative month-over-month retail sales print in over a year pulled the market off its highs — S&P −0.17% to 7,785.76, Nasdaq Composite −0.28% to 26,729.16, Dow −0.20% to 53,732.41. The Russell 2000 also notched a fresh record, closing at 3,068.42 — up a more modest 1.16% on the week, but still marking new-high territory even as the mega-caps took a breather.

Step back and the throughline of the week is a repricing, not a random walk. We got a weak jobs report two weeks ago, now the first real negative retail sales print, and both CPI and PPI landing below or in line with consensus. Consumers look softer, the labor market looks softer, and inflation is cooling — all of which has pulled forward the market's expectations for Fed easing. That repricing is very likely what's driven this three-week run, not just momentum for its own sake. Gold's mild advance to around $4,376 and the VIX sitting at multi-month lows near 14.5 both fit the same story: a market pricing in a friendlier rate path with very little fear attached to it.

Both indices now sit at fresh technical inflection points — the S&P above 7,800 for the first time, the Nasdaq-100 above 30,000 after clearing our flagged level — with a notably quiet macro calendar ahead this week. That absence of scheduled catalysts puts the technical picture squarely in the driver's seat, which is exactly where we turn next.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

The internals keep confirming what the price action has been saying for three weeks: this rally has real legs underneath it. Four of six indicators improved again this week, and the two long-term participation readings both hit new highs for this series.

Start with the headline number: the percentage of S&P names above their 200-day climbed to 74.40% from 73.20% — the broadest long-term participation we've logged all series, and now nearly three-quarters of the index. The 50-day reading told the same story, rising to 70.40% from 66.40%. That's not a market being carried by a handful of names at record highs; it's genuinely broad-based. New 52-week highs widened further too, to 3.0% from 1.40%, and the McClellan Oscillator ticked up to 14.33 from 10.71 — still modest in absolute terms, but positive and building, consistent with the MACD picture from Dead Reckoning.

The one internal that cooled was NYSE net advances, falling to 153 from 858. That's a real deceleration, and it lines up with what we saw in Current Conditions — Friday's profit-taking session pulled breadth in for the week even as the index closed higher on net. Worth watching next week whether that's just a pause or the start of something more.

The put/call ratio is the one flag that keeps getting louder. The 5-day CBOE reading fell again, to 0.52 from 0.54 — its most complacent print of the series. Combined with the VIX sitting at multi-month lows, options positioning is now about as one-sided as it's been since we started tracking it. That's not a reason to fight the trend, but it is the thing that makes this market vulnerable to a sharper-than-expected pullback if the quiet week ahead produces any surprise at all.

Net it out: the structural case for higher prices is intact and, on the long-term participation readings, the strongest it's been all series. The near-term risk isn't in the breadth — it's in how stretched sentiment and options positioning have become on top of it, right as the macro calendar goes quiet and the market is left to trade on momentum alone.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

This week's headline is simple: the S&P's diamond top is negated, and price continues to push higher on the repricing story we laid out in Current Conditions — macro data that's flipped from what looked like a potential headwind into what's increasingly shaping up as a tailwind for equities. With a quiet macro calendar ahead and both major indices now trading in price-discovery territory at record highs, the technical picture and price momentum will have to do the heavy lifting from here, absent some new headline shock.

The SPX technicals back that up. The MACD is now rising firmly above the zero line — meaning the shorter-term moving average is climbing above the longer-term one — which reads as positive technical momentum that can continue to drive price higher. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, and in a strong bull market that's typically a healthy sign of trend strength rather than a warning. That said, overbought conditions paired with a quiet macro week could invite some early profit-taking — there's nothing scheduled to keep buyers leaning in, and thin catalyst weeks are exactly when momentum can stall on its own.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

If the Depth Gauge shows the structural case for higher prices, Tide Watch shows how exposed that case has become to a surprise. Every crowd we track is leaning the same direction, and it's the direction that tends to get tested.

Start with the survey data, and note the small wrinkle: AAII bulls actually pulled back this week, falling 2.3 points to 34.7%, while bears held essentially flat at 37.9%. That's a modest step back in retail conviction even as the index kept grinding to fresh records — a bit of caution creeping in at the individual-investor level. But that caution isn't showing up anywhere else. CNN Fear & Greed climbed to 65 — solidly in Greed, and deeper into it than last week's ~60. So retail surveys are pulling back slightly while the broader sentiment composite keeps pushing further into greed — a signal that whatever's driving conviction right now, it isn't the AAII crowd specifically.

The options and volatility markets tell the more one-sided story. The 5-day put/call ratio fell again to 0.52 from 0.54 — its most complacent reading of the series — while the VIX sits at multi-month lows near 14.5. Cheap volatility and call-heavy positioning are the market's way of saying it doesn't expect to be surprised. Combined with Fear & Greed at 65, that's three separate gauges all pointing the same way: greedy, complacent, and priced for calm.

The futures positioning adds the sharpest turn of the week. Commercials — the hedgers, typically the more defensive money — nearly doubled their net short, from −84,376 to −142,440. That's the first real pushback from the smart-money side since this rally accelerated, and it stands in direct contrast to everyone else: large speculators flipped from net short to net long (−27,258 to +11,280), and small speculators built their long even further, to +131,160 from +111,634. So while the hedgers are increasingly positioned for a pullback, both speculator classes — the more momentum-driven, less-informed side of the futures market — are leaning harder into the rally.

Net it out: this is the most one-sided sentiment picture we've logged all series. A complacent options market, a low VIX, deepening Greed, and speculators piling into futures longs — all stacked on top of hedgers quietly building their largest short in weeks. None of this says the rally is over. But it does mean there's very little cushion left if the quiet macro week ahead produces any real surprise — the crowd that would normally absorb a shock is already fully committed to the other side of the trade.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

Bias remains to the long side on the flip in macro data. Both majors are now in price-discovery territory, with the S&P and Nasdaq each breaking to fresh highs on the back of the repricing story we've traced all issue. With the macro calendar quiet this week, the technical picture is left to lead — the same setup flagged in Dead Reckoning, where momentum has to do the work absent a fresh catalyst.

On the Radar & Game Plan

CIFR, flagged two issues ago as a momentum name, gave us a textbook retest. Price came back down to touch $16.20 last week, just above the original breakout level near $16, before buyers stepped back in and closed the week at $17.86. From here, I'd look to get long on a strong break above $19 — a clean move through that level would confirm the retest held and the next leg is underway.

ServiceNow, flagged last issue testing its 50-day at $131.50, got its answer: that level held as resistance, pulling the stock down 2.55% Friday to close the week at $124. Not a full breakdown, but a clear rejection. From here, two paths. A retest of the 20-day at $103 — support that's held for months — would be the opportunity to create or add to a long position. Alternatively, a break back above the 50-day at $131 would open the door to a test of the 100-day at $162. Either way, the levels are clean, and I'll be watching which one price commits to first.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Frisco, NC (Outerbanks) - One week down

Last issue I said we were heading out to watch the stars and the meteor shower — and man, it did not disappoint. Pictured below is me and Ava watching the galaxy, fully visible in a sky littered with stars, with the occasional meteor streaking across. A magical sight to see.

Settling in has been fun, exciting, and hot. The weather down here has held at a pretty consistent 80 degrees, which has driven us to spend most of our days on the beach under the shade we picked up once we got settled. Plenty of body surfing, swimming, and a little actual surfing this past week to keep ourselves cool. It's been fun connecting with people at the campsite — locals and connections we had lined up before we got down here — and we're constantly met with excitement and well wishes along the way.

This past week we connected with someone who grew up with my uncle in Scituate, knew my mom, and knew my mom's family. We ate at their restaurant, chatted, and picked up a few more local recommendations. We also had my good friend Eli come visit for the weekend, since he now lives in the state. It was such a fun time getting to hang out together after not seeing each other in a while — especially in our first week on the road. Always too quick, but we absolutely made the most of it. We laughed, swam, talked, and enjoyed this beautiful island, reminiscing on times old and new. Next week we'll head down to Ocacroke via a ferry of this Island, head inland before moving further South to Wilmington and then head further inland towards the mountains to get some high ground and hopefully cooler weather.

I think that's one of the things I'm starting to look forward to most about being on the road — getting to connect with friends old and new across the country, showing them a day in our life, and hanging out in all sorts of cool places along the way.

For now, we're heading out — the coffee shop I'm writing this from is about to close. It's called the Ugly Mug, pretty cool spot. A couple of guys were jamming on guitar behind me for the first hour or so, sounded pretty good.

If you want to follow along as we start full-time travels, we're on Instagram at @a.overland.adventure.

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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