A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

Last week can be categorized pretty easily: a week where a surge in Treasury yields drove losses in equities, while crypto caught a bid on strong momentum toward a legislative push. The S&P declined 1.54% over the week, with tech the weakest link — the sector most sensitive to the move higher in yields, and it showed, falling more than 3% over the five sessions as names like Meta, Amkor, and Credo bore the brunt.

The irony of the week was the Treasury's own attempt to fix the problem. The administration tried to curb the surge in the 30-year by announcing an expanded buyback program — more than doubling the size of its long-dated debt purchases. But the relief was short-lived. Rather than reassuring the market, the move seemed to send a negative signal instead: it read less like a confident policy tool and more like an admission that yields had become a genuine problem. The dollar weakened further on the news, and yields — the very thing the buyback was meant to contain — actually pushed higher into Thursday. That combination, a weaker dollar and higher yields at the same time, isn't the market's normal playbook, and it's part of why the week felt uneasy even before you get to the price action.

Iran added to the tension. Treasury Secretary Bessent talked up "the greatest coordinated economic isolation" against Iran, a sharp reversal from the ceasefire optimism that had fueled the rally in Issues 6 and 7. And on the earnings side, MRVL fell 6% on profit-taking ahead of its August 27 report, with a couple of other names — Teradyne and AppLovin — also giving back ground on analyst downgrades and price-target cuts.

Where the dollar's weakness actually showed up constructively was in the alternative-asset trade. Gold posted its fifth consecutive weekly gain — its longest winning streak since October 2025 — closing near a three-month high above $4,569. Bitcoin was the standout, though, surging to roughly $77,000 for its best week in two years, up around 22%, as strength in a legislative push for crypto combined with the weak-dollar backdrop to pull money toward it. Robinhood and Coinbase both rallied hard alongside it.

Friday did rescue the tape somewhat. The flash S&P Global Composite PMI hit 56.0 — the fastest pace of U.S. business growth since April 2022, driven by a surge in services to a 20-month high. That strong read gave the market a reason to bounce, and stocks closed the week higher on Friday even though the week overall was firmly in the red.

Looking ahead, the macro calendar is anything but quiet. Jackson Hole is the headline event next week, with Fed Governor Warsh's debut speech there alongside a fresh PCE inflation read — a real test of whether this bond-market stress eases or intensifies. Given how directly this week's equity weakness traced back to the move in yields, how the market reacts to Jackson Hole will likely set the tone for whether the S&P's underlying structure — which we still held, even in a rough week — continues to hold.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

The internals confirm exactly what the price action suggested: this was a real pullback, not just noise, but the damage was concentrated in the short-term picture rather than the structural one. The McClellan Oscillator flipped negative, to −10.69 from +14.33, signaling that breadth momentum genuinely turned over the course of the week — this wasn't just index-level weakness from a handful of mega-caps, it was broader participation rolling over too. That shows up even more clearly in the 50-day reading, which collapsed to 58.00% from 70.40%. A move that sharp means a meaningful number of names fell below their 50-day moving average during the week's selloff — real, broad-based technical damage, not just a headline print.

But zoom out, and the longer-term structure is a different story. The percentage of names above their 200-day only slipped to 72.40% from 74.40% — a minor dent relative to the scale of the short-term deterioration. New 52-week highs also narrowed, to 2.20% from 3.0%, consistent with a market that's pulled back from its highs rather than pushed further into them.

One number worth a second look: NYSE net advances actually rose to 587 from 153. Given the week the index had, that seems counterintuitive — but it lines up with Friday specifically. The PMI-driven bounce that closed out the week was a broad, participation-driven rally, not just a mega-cap snapback. So the sequence reads as: real breadth deterioration through the week, then a genuinely broad-based relief rally on Friday's data.

This is exactly the same story the MACD told in Dead Reckoning, just from a different angle. There, we flagged bearish divergence at the price level — the S&P's newest record high came with a materially weaker MACD reading than the June record, meaning momentum was already fading even as price pushed higher. The breadth data confirms that read independently: the McClellan flipping negative and the 50-day participation collapsing are the internals-level evidence that the underlying thrust behind this rally was genuinely losing steam before this week's price weakness ever showed up. Two different tools — one measuring price momentum, one measuring participation — arriving at the same conclusion is a stronger signal than either one alone. That combination is why the near-term caution in Dead Reckoning feels well-founded rather than just a bad week getting overread.

The put/call ratio is the one number that didn't move, and that's the flag worth carrying into next week. Even after a real selloff and a confirmed breadth rollover, the 5-day reading held essentially flat at 0.51 from 0.52 — options positioning never got defensive. That's notable: a market that just took real technical damage, confirmed across both price momentum and breadth, but never saw the hedging or fear you'd typically expect to accompany it. If Jackson Hole or the PCE print disappoints, there's very little cushion built into positioning right now to absorb it.

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

Even in a weak week, the S&P held its structure. Every major moving average is still intact, and Friday's bounce found support almost exactly at the 20-day, sitting at 7,644 — a level that lines up neatly with the diamond top's original negation point near 7,620, the June 2nd record breakout. Given the macro catalyst behind the bounce — Friday's flash S&P Global Composite PMI hitting 56.0, the fastest pace of U.S. business growth since April 2022, driven by a services surge to a 20-month high — that support holding made sense. Strong data gave buyers a reason to step back in right at a level that already mattered technically.

But the momentum picture underneath tells a more cautious story. Looking at the MACD, there's a clear bearish divergence between the two most recent record highs. When the S&P first broke out to its June 2nd intraday record of 7,620, the MACD reached a reading of 153. When price pushed to its newest intraday record on Thursday, August 13th at 7,816, the MACD only reached 85 — a meaningfully weaker reading on a meaningfully higher price. That's the textbook definition of bearish divergence: price making new highs while the underlying momentum makes lower highs. It's also shown up in the signal-line cross, with the MACD moving from above its signal line to below, and the 12-period moving average now sitting below the 26-period. In plain terms — the market rallied to fresh records, but it did so with less thrust behind each push. Momentum has been quietly fading even as price kept climbing.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

This week's sentiment data captures the split personality of the week itself — genuine unease mid-week, followed by a partial recovery on Friday's data. AAII bulls actually ticked up slightly to 35.5% from 34.7%, but bears climbed further too, to 39.9% from 37.9%, with neutral sentiment draining into both camps. That's not a clean signal in either direction — it reads as investors picking sides rather than sitting on the fence, which fits a week that genuinely tested conviction.

CNN Fear & Greed tells the more complete story. The index cooled to 55 (still Greed) from 65 the week prior, but the headline number undersells how far it actually moved intraweek — Thursday, in the middle of the Dow's 700-point drop on the Walmart miss and the renewed yield spike, the index touched 52.1 and briefly crossed into Neutral territory. Friday's PMI-driven bounce pulled it back to 55, but the round trip itself is the signal: this was the first week in over a month where sentiment actually flinched.

The futures positioning adds some nuance worth sitting with. Commercials trimmed their net short further, to −113,553 from −142,440 — continuing to lean less against the market, a mild positive carried over from recent weeks. But large speculators flipped from net long to net short, moving to −10,560 from +11,280, while small speculators trimmed their long slightly to +124,113. That's a subtle but real shift: the more momentum-driven side of the futures market got a little more cautious this week, even as the hedgers kept easing off their short. Nothing dramatic, but directionally it lines up with everything else this week — genuine, if modest, de-risking across the board.

Net it out: sentiment didn't break, but it wobbled for the first time in a while. The mid-week dip into Neutral, the AAII bears climbing alongside bulls, and large specs flipping short all point the same direction — conviction is a little softer heading into Jackson Hole than it's been at any point in this rally. Given how directly this week's price action traced back to yields, that's exactly the kind of setup where sentiment could break either way depending on what Warsh says next week.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

Last week's bias was to the long side. In trading, you have to stay fluid — adapt and synthesize the evidence as it comes in, not marry a position because it worked the week before. The longs didn't work out, and the script flipped hard going into this macro-heavy week. The S&P showed bearish divergence right at the record highs set over the past two weeks, internal breadth indicators collapsed alongside it, and price pulled back from the most mechanical macro headwind there is: an uncontrolled surge in Treasury yields. That's the one input the market will always respect, and it's capable of derailing even the strongest rally.

On the Radar & Game Plan

After a season of underperformance versus equities, bitcoin flexed its muscles this week. The cryptocurrency posted a 22% gain, its best weekly showing in over two years. Bitcoin's structure over the past decade can be summed up simply: strong outperformance followed by rapid, drastic drawdowns. Volatility, in a word. The coin peaked in October 2025 near $126,000 before falling roughly 55% to a July low near $58,000 — this after a blistering rally of about 675% measured from the November 2022 low of roughly $15,000.

What's notable is the pattern across cycles: each one brings shallower drawdowns and shallower rallies than the one before, likely a function of the market becoming more efficient, alongside growing institutional adoption and legislative support. For comparison, the December 2017-to-January 2019 decline ran about 85%, followed by a rally into October 2021 of roughly 1,900%. This most recent rally was only about a third the size of that prior cycle, with the drawdown also notably shallower this time around.

Looking at the all-time chart, support shows up right around the 100-day moving average, currently sitting at $61,024 — almost exactly where this cycle's low was made. If the next bullish cycle runs at roughly a third the magnitude of the last one, that measured-move framework points to a price target near $200,000. For confirmation of renewed near-term momentum, I want to see a reclamation of the 50-day on the all-time chart and the MACD flip positive above the zero line. But this week's action — money fleeing both Treasuries and equities into bitcoin — could be an early signal that, with increasing legislative support and institutional adoption, a near-term bottom may already be in place.

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Floyd, VA - Blue Ridge Mountains

The past week was an eventful one, to say the least — one where we had to take the good with the bad, adapt, and make a gameplan to get more comfortable. We had an amazing time in the Outer Banks — exploring, enjoying the beach, establishing some routine — but man, it was hot. Highs averaging the upper 80s with heavy humidity and little relief at night. We spent about a week and a half there before deciding last Wednesday it was time to make the drive down to Wilmington, NC.

We made the five-hour drive on Wednesday, and after a few stops — at the very last one — we climbed back in the van, started her up, and to our surprise: the AC was gone. If you've never driven through 86-degree heat for two hours with no air conditioning, it felt like rolling through a hot bowl of soup.

We scrambled to see if a relay for the AC clutch might fix it — no luck — and got into a local mechanic shop, where a diagnostic delivered the bad news: the compressor and condenser had both failed. If you know anything about vehicle mechanics, that's not cheap. But less than an hour after getting that call, I got an email I'd been waiting a while for: I officially passed Level III and completed the CMT Program. The hard part's done — I'm now pending my charter for the CMT designation, something I've been working toward for the last two years, and I couldn't be more excited. Thank you to everyone who supported and motivated me along the way, especially my fellow CMTs. And to my old coworker who bet I'd fail one of the levels — if you're reading this, suck it. (LOL.)

So, the lesson: take the good with the bad, and just keep moving forward and adapting. Just like the markets. We got the AC fixed, spent a couple of days in a hotel with the air conditioning cranked as cold as it gets, and yesterday decided to high-tail it to the Blue Ridge Mountains, where it's currently a high of 72 and dropping into the upper 50s at night. I've never been so excited for cooler weather — waking up not sweating felt like heaven. Pictured is the view we woke up to this morning; it was dark and stormy when we arrived last night, so waking up to a beautiful mountain vista and cool air felt like a real reward.

We're off now to catch some true bluegrass music in Floyd, VA, at a local annual country/bluegrass festival. Stay adaptable out there, and I hope you all have a good week.

Chart Your Territory

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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