A Weekly Market Intelligence Dispatch · By Anthony Spinella

Charted Territory

No GPS. No guesses. Just price.

The signal is out there. You just have to know where to look.

Section I

Current Conditions

Macro overview — what the water looks like today

The week moved through three real catalysts, each a genuine test the market had to clear. Monday opened defensively as Treasury Secretary Bessent unveiled expanded Iran sanctions and chip stocks slid ahead of Nvidia's report — the S&P closed at 7,652, testing the 20-day almost to the number. Tuesday reversed hard on housing data, falling yields, and a chip-stock rally into Nvidia, with the S&P gaining 0.32%. Wednesday brought July PCE (core in line at 3.3% y/y) and a third straight day of falling oil on Iran-Oman de-escalation talk, closing essentially flat as markets braced for Nvidia's after-hours report.

Thursday was the real fireworks: Nvidia delivered a strong quarter and a rare, reassuring annual guide on the AI buildout, sending memory names up over 3%. A gamma exposure (GEX) read showed the S&P capped at a positive-GEX wall near 7,710 before breaking through late in the session, closing up 0.72% at 7,730.99. Friday was Jackson Hole — Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tone on inflation sent the market reversing hard intraday, though it closed the week at 7,711.76, landing almost exactly on the rising 20-day (now 7,712).

Net for the week: the S&P finished modestly positive, up 0.49%. What stands out is what the market absorbed to get there. Jackson Hole, the July PCE print, and Nvidia's earnings were three legitimate macro and single-stock risk events in one week — any one of which could have knocked the tape off course — and despite some real technical caution underneath (more on that in the Depth Gauge), the index stayed the course and closed the week pinned to its own support line. That's a market that's absorbed real headwinds without breaking. If we get an in-line-to-light NFP print Friday, the rally likely has room to run to start the new month and carry into the final quarter of the year.

Section II

The Depth Gauge

Market internals & breadth — how deep does the move really go?

This is the other side of a resilient-looking week. Every single internal moved the same direction, and it's the direction that should temper some of the optimism from a tape that just cleared Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia's earnings without breaking. After weeks of a more mixed or gently eroding picture, this is now two straight weeks of breadth genuinely rolling over — and the deterioration accelerated rather than stabilized, even as the index itself held its ground.

The McClellan Oscillator pushed further negative, to −18.47 from −10.69, while NYSE net advances flipped outright negative, to −411 from +587 the week prior. That's a meaningful shift: a market that closed the week roughly flat to modestly higher, but doing so with more stocks declining than advancing underneath the surface. The percentage of names above their 50-day continued to erode, down to 53.60% from 58.00% — barely above half the index now holding short-term uptrends — while new 52-week highs have nearly dried up entirely, down to 0.20% from 2.20%. Longer-term structure is holding better by comparison; the percentage above the 200-day only slipped to 71.00% from 72.40%, a minor dent relative to the scale of the short-term damage.

The put/call ratio is the one number that actually reversed its recent trend, and it's worth sitting with. After weeks of persistent complacency, the 5-day reading rose to 0.62 from 0.51 — the first real move toward hedging we've tracked in a long stretch. On its own, more put buying is a healthy sign; it means some fear is finally showing up in positioning rather than a market that never flinches. But paired with the breadth collapse happening at the same time, it reads less like isolated caution and more like the options market catching up to what the internals have been signaling for two weeks.

So the two reads aren't contradictory, they're just measuring different things. Price absorbed three real macro tests this week and closed pinned to support — genuinely resilient. But fewer stocks are participating in that resilience each week, and the MACD divergence flagged in Dead Reckoning confirms the same fade in momentum. That's not a reason to turn bearish on its own, but it does mean the market's margin for error is thinner than the headline price action suggests. If Monday's close holds and breadth stabilizes alongside it, this looks like a healthy pause before the next leg. If it breaks, there's real room underneath for the downside targets already laid out

Section III

Dead Reckoning

Technical analysis — navigating by price action alone

Last issue I flagged the level to watch: I wanted to see the S&P hold the 20-day, then sitting around 7,650, coming into the week's open. Give that up, and I said the next stop would be the 50-day, roughly 1.6% lower near 7,540. The level held almost exactly — Monday closed at 7,652, testing the line right on the number — and the market spent the rest of the week dancing along that moving average, ultimately closing right back on it Friday with a modest 0.49% weekly gain to 7,711. The 20-day itself has since risen to 7,712, meaning price closed the week essentially pinned to its own support line. Clean validation of the level, even if the week's action in between was more chop than trend.

Coming into this week, the setup rhymes with last week almost exactly. Friday's closing level needs to hold through Monday's close to keep this short-term structure intact — and the backdrop is a little more cautious this time, with the MACD (our momentum gauge) trending lower week over week even as price held its ground. That's the same kind of quiet deterioration under the surface we flagged in the Depth Gauge.

Section IV

Tide Watch

Sentiment & flows — is the tide coming in or going out?

Sentiment cracked hard this week, and by our framework, that's constructive. AAII bulls fell to 32.9% from 35.5%, bears jumped to 44.4% from 39.9% — a two-month high in pessimism and the sharpest single-week swing we've tracked — and the bull-bear spread widened to −11.5% from −4.4%. Fear & Greed eased to 54 from 55, sitting right on the line with neutral.

The setup is the one we like: retail got meaningfully more fearful through a week that included Jackson Hole, a hot-ish PCE print, and Nvidia's earnings — even though the index absorbed all three and closed essentially flat to modestly higher. Fear rising while price holds its structure is the classic buy-the-blood setup, not a warning sign.

The futures data adds one wrinkle. Commercials cut their net short nearly in half, to −64,065 from −113,553 — fitting the bullish read. But large speculators flipped the other way, building a much bigger net short, to −67,994 from −10,560, while small specs kept adding to their long. Large-spec positioning tends to be the more informed read, so that shift is worth watching even against an otherwise favorable sentiment backdrop.

Net it out: AAII bears at a two-month high, price still pinned to its 20-day — this is sentiment doing what it's supposed to do before the tape proves it wrong. The one dissent is large specs leaning more bearish at the same time, the single gauge this week not playing along with the fear-is-fuel thesis.

Section V

The Heading

Trade ideas & outlook — here's where we're pointed

We've already discussed our playbook for the SPX and how the economic implications of a strong or weak jobs print should — and could — impact the market. I now want to turn to the tech-heavy NDX, which we've continued to track week over week.

Last week, the major index was saved largely by Nvidia's blowout quarter and forecast, which sent the AI trade higher. Notably, that same day, another trade we highlighted two issues ago was moving higher too: ServiceNow (NOW). The software sector had a real day on Thursday following the Nvidia print, as Salesforce, Okta, and CrowdStrike all posted strong earnings beats and raised guidance, sparking a broad rally across software names. This is the exact scenario I laid out for ServiceNow in Issues No. 6 and No. 7. The stock rallied 9.8% that day in sympathy with the software sector's earnings-driven strength, and is now up from $124 to $144 — a gain of roughly 16% since we first flagged the setup. Earnings aren't until October, so there's no near-term catalyst risk to navigate here — just a name riding sector strength with room to keep working. I see this as a strong opportunity still.

On the Radar & Game Plan

With NOW up 16% since our original flag, I still see room here. The stock has cleared its 50-day, which sat well below Friday's close at $129, and — more importantly — has reclaimed the longer-term 200-period moving average on the 5-year chart. That's the most bullish signal for the rally continuing: price is now above the long-term average, and short-term momentum is building, with the 20-day curling higher and room to run before the next resistance. The next hurdle is the 100-period moving average at 161.15, giving the stock another ~15 points of room before we'd expect selling pressure to build again.

IGV. The software sector as a whole has staged a strong rebound since the "SaaSpocalypse" that opened the year, when the sector was nearly halved on fears that AI would disrupt most software-as-a-service business models. But many of these companies — especially in the cyber and identity software space — are proving they integrate well with frontier AI models, particularly at the enterprise level. That's the thesis on ServiceNow, and it's what drove Salesforce and Okta higher this week too: the disruption threat wasn't what it was priced for, and there's real growth opportunity in the AI buildout and enterprise adoption instead. Technically, the sector sits above all key moving averages and is making a run at the record highs set in October 2025 near 117 (IGV, charted below).

Section VI

Off the Chart

Life beyond the screens — dispatches from the road & the water

📍  Floyd, VA - Tie Dye Overalls

Floyd, Virginia has been one of, if not the best, place we've visited so far on this trip. The title of this section is how the locals have told us they describe their own town: tie dye overalls. It's a fun, kind, vibrant, and deeply cultural southern community that holds onto its traditional roots through Bluegrass music.

In my last Off the Chart, I mentioned we were heading to the Floyd Country Store to catch some live music. Well, after that first night, we had to stay for the week. The community embraced us, pulled us into their local weekly traditions, and showed us what a full week here looks like.

That first Sunday, we danced the afternoon away to bluegrass at the Country Store alongside a new friend, Randy — an older gentleman with a beautiful story and an even bigger heart. He filled us in on the week ahead: free live music Thursday, the Friday night jamboree tradition. Other locals pointed us toward the farmers market, the best hikes, and where to eat. So we spent the week doing all of it.

After Sunday's dancing, we regrouped and Monday set out on a two-day, eleven-mile backpacking trip down Rock Castle Gorge — Ava's first time sleeping in a tent, and, to make it more interesting, bear territory. It made for a night that was beautiful but genuinely challenging. We got back Tuesday, did a gear clean-out and grocery run, and spent the rest of the day relaxing. Wednesday we headed to the Rocky Knob campsite and met Dennis and Colleen, who spent the evening sharing stories, road advice, life advice, and tips on where to go along the Blue Ridge Parkway. Thursday brought the free concert — some beautiful tributes to the late Dolly, rest her soul — and a great night out in town.

Friday, we met back up with Randy and danced for probably three hours. But the real highlight was watching all the older men in the room ask Ava to dance. I can hold my own, but I can't compete with that crowd. By the end of the night, she'd been taught how to two-step and waltz to old-time bluegrass by seven different gentlemen, each one clearly thrilled to teach her. It put the biggest smile on my face and might be the highlight of my entire week.

Saturday, we made our way back to camp to close out the week with Dennis and Colleen, watching a young sibling band, Windy Creek Rising, and catching up with some younger friends we'd made along the way. Today we're torn — we'd planned to head to Boone, NC, but we like it here enough that we might just stay another week.

We'll see where the decision takes us. For now, I hope you all have a great week

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Charted Territory

By Anthony Spinella · Market Intelligence Dispatch

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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